Lending, Data, and Risks: Key Themes of the Bank of Russia–HSE–NES Workshop

In late March, ICEF hosted the 17th Bank of Russia–HSE–NES Economic Studies Workshop, “The Role of Information Asymmetry in Financial Markets: From Learning to Lending.” The workshop brought together representatives of the Bank of Russia, Sberbank, Sovcombank, UniCredit Bank, and other financial institutions, as well as analysts, academic researchers, and experts from the banking sector. The discussion focused on the role of information asymmetry in financial markets, decision-making under uncertainty, and lending in an environment of structural change in the global economy.

The participants of the 17th Bank of Russia–HSE–NES Economic Studies Workshop

The workshop opened with welcoming remarks by Vladimir Sokolov, PhD, Head of the International Laboratory of Financial Economics at ICEF HSE, who co-organised the event on behalf of HSE.

Opening remarks were also delivered by Alexander Morozov, Director of the Research and Forecasting Department at the Bank of Russia, and Oleg Zamkov, ICEF Deputy Director for Academic Affairs. Alexander Morozov described the workshop’s theme as fundamental, noting that lending decisions depend directly on the information available to banks about borrowers. For this reason, data-related issues are becoming increasingly central to the financial agenda. Together with artificial intelligence, the restructuring of global financial flows, the green transition, and digitalisation, these developments are reshaping the global financial system.

At the same time, the rapid growth of data does not automatically imply an improvement in data quality. A substantial share of available data may consist of noise, making it increasingly difficult to identify economically meaningful signals. The digital divide is also widening: large digital ecosystems accumulate extensive datasets and gain competitive advantages, while other market participants operate under less favourable informational conditions. This dynamic reinforces information asymmetry.

In this environment, economic agents—banks, firms, and households—often make decisions with incomplete information and under conditions shaped by informational inequality. This affects access to credit and the distribution of risks within the financial system. A central question for the workshop was therefore how informed decisions can be made when data are abundant but heterogeneous in quality and accessibility.

Oleg Zamkov emphasised that although theoretical models in finance remain powerful, they need to be updated and adapted to modern conditions as digital technologies, artificial intelligence, and financial markets continue to evolve. He noted that the workshop was intended to help researchers identify new directions for model development, including models of digital asymmetry, and to support the refinement of students’ learning and research trajectories. Professor Zamkov also highlighted the importance of cooperation between academic researchers and practitioners, including collaboration between regulators and universities, as an important condition for progress in both research and financial practice.

Expert Panel

The main programme began with an expert panel devoted to practical issues in banking and monetary policy. Participants discussed an important paradox: despite the expansion of data, models, and formal transparency, systemic risks persist. According to the speakers, the key challenge is not information asymmetry as such, but understanding where it is most critical and how it should be addressed.

The panel discussion covered three levels of analysis: retail lending, capital markets, and macroeconomics.

Retail lending was the focus of the presentation by Leonid Kavalenya, Deputy Head of the Macroprudential Regulation Centre in the Bank of Russia’s Financial Stability Department. He noted that information asymmetry in retail credit markets still largely originates on the borrower side.

Dmitry Nikonov, Head of Investment Analysis at Sovcombank, delivered a presentation titled “Asymmetry in Credit Analysis.” He emphasised the need for further research on market indicators, stronger professional expertise among market participants, and the development of collective investment mechanisms. He also discussed whether shared access to common datasets could reduce the effectiveness of market signals. In addition, he reviewed the advantages and limitations of artificial intelligence in financial decision-making, with particular reference to the current state of the Russian issuer market.

Artem Arkhipov, Chief Economist at UniCredit Bank, stressed that information asymmetry is not a new problem and has taken different forms in different historical periods. Discussing artificial intelligence, he described it as a tool that can enhance existing skills rather than substitute for them. In his view, AI can make professionals who already work effectively with data even more productive, but it cannot compensate for a lack of analytical competence. Wider access to data benefits those who already possess the skills required to interpret it. He also underlined the importance of historical knowledge and critical thinking among students, warning against the risk that short-term gains from AI may crowd out genuine learning. At the same time, he noted that younger professionals who have grown up with AI and understand its limitations may be valuable employees.

The panel also paid particular attention to trust in technology, personal data management, and the risks associated with excessive information.

The roundtable was moderated by Alina Myalo, Executive Director at Sberbank. Encouraging an active exchange of views, she focused not only on technical issues but also on ethical and regulatory aspects. She agreed that one of the main challenges today is the absence of shared approaches to data governance that properly account for the interests of businesses, the state, and individuals.

Research Seminar

The research seminar was chaired by Maria Semenova, Head of the Laboratory for Banking Studies at the Faculty of Economic Sciences, HSE. In her opening remarks, she emphasised the importance of empirical research for understanding modern financial markets.

The first presentation was delivered by Irina Kozlovtseva, consultant in the Bank of Russia’s Research and Forecasting Department. Her talk, titled “Patterns of Corporate Credit Line Utilisation and Implications for Financial Stability,” was based on her study of corporate credit facilities operating since 2017. One of the main findings was that nearly half of all corporate debt owed to banks is represented by unused credit limits, even though around 40 percent of credit lines have been fully drawn. Another important result was that credit lines issued by banks with which firms have long-standing borrower relationships tend to be used more actively and drawn ahead of schedule. During the discussion, participants raised the issue of firm size and its role as a variable in the empirical analysis. Irina Kozlovtseva noted that the discussion had identified several questions that could be explored further to improve the study.

Arsenii Mishin, Assistant Professor at the HSE Faculty of Economic Sciences, presented his paper “Cyclical Fluctuations, Financial Frictions, and Productivity Differences across Firms.” The presentation prompted a discussion of whether less profitable firms may obtain preferential loans and what implications such lending may have for the broader industry. As Arsenii Mishin noted, access to such loans can have consequences beyond the individual firm and may affect industry-level dynamics.

Sedki Zaiane, Research Fellow at the HSE Laboratory for Banking Studies, Faculty of Economic Sciences, presented his study “Climate Risk and Bank Liquidity Creation in the MENA Region: A Dual Threshold-Quantile Approach.” He argued that understanding how banks respond to climate shocks is important for financial stability. In the MENA region, climate change poses a major challenge to local businesses. One of the study’s conclusions is that exposure to climate risk leads banks to reduce lending.

Maria Semenova (Faculty of Economic Sciences, HSE), Nadezhda Pozdnyakova (NES), and Vladimir Sokolov (ICEF, HSE) served as discussants. Their comments offered substantive insights into both the methodological and applied aspects of the papers presented. The research seminar generated an active discussion, with valuable feedback from the discussants and strong engagement from the audience.

In his closing remarks, Professor Sokolov thanked the speakers, panellists, discussants, and audience members. He noted the high academic quality of the presentations and the valuable feedback provided during the workshop.

The next Bank of Russia–HSE–NES Workshop is scheduled for June 30 and will take place in St Petersburg.