Research projects 2020
1. The interbank market panic and the payments between firms
Studying the impact of financial shocks on the real economy is an important topic for developing policies to smooth the influence of these shocks. We focus on the operating of the banking payment system, which facilitates payments between firms in the real sector, in periods when the level of trust between banks and their counterparties drops due to unforeseen panic on the interbank market.
2. Commodity cycles and financial instability in emerging market economies
Commodity price fluctuations over the past decade have induced paying attention on their role as a driving force of business cycles in developing countries. However, the evidence of highlighting the relative importance of observable shocks, such as oil prices, and unobservable ones, such as the total productivity of production factors, was unconvincing. In countries with a considerable size of a commodity sector international commodity price fluctuations lead to significant changes in national income which may be the prevailing force in the dynamics of the entire business cycle of a country. A decline in agents` income leads to an increase in defaults threatening the financial stability of the economy. Thus, in order to pursue a policy for ensuring financial stability, it is necessary to account for the impact of commodity price fluctuations for the exporting economies.
3. Export supply of Russian firms and distance to counterparties
Studying the way how costs of delivering goods from exporting firms to final consumers shape patterns in international trade is important both in terms of economic theory and export promotion policies. We utilize the unique detailed dataset that enables us to identify cargo shipments between Russian exporting firms and their foreign recipients, as well as to calculate the exact distance between them. Since economic decision of exporting firms about each particular shipment take into account the shipment costs which are associated with the transportation costs, we estimate which exporting firms are most sensitive to external shocks given distance to their counterparties. This estimation would help us in formulating the economic policy recommendations aimed at stimulating firms` exports.
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